In September 2019. months before the current pandemic broke out, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (comprising experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank) warned us that if a new, aggressive type of influenza were to break out tomorrow, the world wouldn’t have the tools to prevent the devastating consequences.

The report, entitled A World at Risk, made recommendations concerning how to be prepared, such as being ready for an increased demand for vaccines or how to isolate the virus during its initial phase.

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According to the document, a future epidemic of this type could impact from 50 to 80 million people and would devastate 5% of the global economy because we simply don’t have sufficient infrastructure.

So far, 5.3 million people have died from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. International Day of Epidemic Preparedness is now commemorated every December 27 to highlight the importance of prevention, preparedness, and collaboration to tackle epidemics.

“Covid-19 has laid bare the truth: when the time came, the world was still not ready,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO Director-General in his opening address on emergency preparedness in 2020.

Neither the last pandemic nor the last emergency

After the H1N1 influenza in 2009, Mexico got ready for another influenza epidemic, but never for a coronavirus.

“Approximately every 10 years —this is not a rule—, a new strain appears, which is what we had been expecting,” says José Campillo, a virologist from the Faculty of Science at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM for its initials in Spanish) and member of the Mexico Virology Society.

As there are protocols and antiviral drugs to deal with influenza, the virus didn’t spread drastically in 2009. However, there were no such measures in place for SARS-CoV-2.

RNA viruses like the coronavirus have a very high mutation rate, which explains why there are new variants and vaccines have to be modified.

How can we get ready for the next pandemic?

According to the United Nations and the WHO, preparedness is the capacity of governments, organizations and professionals to provide an effective response, to prevent and detect the consequences of emergencies and imminent or current threats that affect health.

After the losses, lockdowns, quarantines, health measures, and new variants, what have we learned and what should we improve?

Connect monitoring systems around the world

One of the fundamental pillars supporting efforts to create a vaccine was worldwide collaboration; sequencing the virus and making it available to all scientists made the development of COVID-19 vaccines possible.

José Campillo says this should be reinforced. “Mexico has deciphered complete genome sequences and we have them in free databases that any scientist in the world can access.

This monitoring will make it possible to study the virus as it mutates. “All humanity should be thinking as one.”

Improve health systems around the world

“Information about cases should be disseminated, not hidden,” explains Campillo. Timely information is the only thing that allows us to make progress without stumbling around in the dark.

And he recommends that as soon as a vaccine is ready, it should be used. “The pandemic doesn’t take holidays; vaccine use should be continuous.”

Medical units need to be equipped with everything for patient care.

The virologist goes on to describe several essential aspects that make preparations more complete:

• Do field research
• Lab assessments to understand potential impacts
• Evaluate the impact and effectiveness of social measures
• Improve diagnostic techniques
• Conduct detection tests

What we as citizens can do

SARS-CoV-2 has changed every aspect of our lives: we have learned new words such as virus, Covid-19, pandemic, epidemic, and coronavirus, but Campillo warns that this is not enough. There are also things we can do to be prepared.

For example, he recommends consulting websites with reliable information and disseminating what we learn, maintaining preventive measures, and taking care of hygiene at all times.

“People now need to have a basic understanding of science,” he says. Moreover, the virologist believes that the average man or woman in the street should now know what a virus is, what a vaccine is, how these biological compounds are made, and that viruses change.

In his opinion, “This basic understanding of science will enable us not to start from scratch in the future.”

Seven pillars for being prepared

Furthermore, the most recent report on preparation for epidemics highlights seven pillars for global pandemic preparation.

Universality: Any emergency, wherever it may arise, must be tackled with international cooperation.

Solidarity: all countries and key stakeholders must share the risks, responsibilities, and benefits.

Capital: Access to information and pharmaceutical products must be equitable. Failure to guarantee equity prolongs outbreaks and pandemics, in addition to increasing the number of preventable deaths.

People centered: Management of the risk of outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics is aimed at protecting people as well as their property and rights.

Multisector: Public health systems are at the core of health emergencies. Their preparation and response must be coordinated and multisector.

Multilateralism: Global preparation consists of preventing, preparing, detecting, and responding to health emergencies with inclusive global mechanisms.

Sustainability: These efforts also imply a political commitment in which prevention, oversight, and response systems are sustainable.

Covid-19 won’t be the last health emergency the world will suffer from, which is why we should prepare for the next epidemic to ensure it doesn’t become a pandemic.