Analysis performed by the Mathematics Department of Royal Global University claims that it will be much more serious in Russia, followed by Italy.
Spain, Poland, Italy, and other countries are preparing more severe lockdown measures to face the second wave of coronavirus.
According to a study by the Mathematics Department of the Assam Royal Global University, the new outbreak on that continent will be more accelerated.
According to the publication by researcher Hemanta Kumar Baruah, “In the European countries the second wave of Covid-19 has been observed to be much more serious than the first one.”
According to the models analyzed, in India and the USA, the spread is retarding while in these six European countries (Spain, Italy, Russia, France, the UK, Germany) that kind of retardation took place months ago, and thereafter it has started to move towards resurgence.
The researcher analyzes the number of infections reported during October and says that Europe is showing an unusual trend.
“How long would the situation remain in this way cannot be said now. But one thing can be said with certainty that the situation has become explosive. In Russia in particular, the growth is not following the standard epidemiological growth pattern. In Italy, Germany and the UK too, the growth is very unusual. In Spain and France, the situation is uncertain as yet. We conclude that the growth pattern of the epidemic in the current resurgence in the six European countries concerned is of a type very different from the nearly exponential type followed in the accelerating phase in the first wave.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the northern hemisphere is at a critical moment in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, with too many countries registering exponential growth in coronavirus cases.
“Too many countries are seeing an exponential increase in Covid-19 cases and that is now leading to hospitals and intensive care units running close to or above capacity—and we’re still only in October,” stated Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a press conference.
The WHO director considered that the next few months will be very difficult, since some countries are on a “dangerous track”.
In the last 24 hours, almost half of worldwide cases were registered in Europe, explained Maria Van Kerkhove, the person responsible for managing the pandemic at the WHO.
This expert said that hospitals will reach capacity in several European countries in the next few weeks.
“We urge leaders to take immediate action to prevent further unnecessary deaths, essential health services from collapsing, and schools shutting again,” said the WHO chief.
If governments can “hone their contact tracing systems and focus on isolating all cases and quarantining contacts,” then it will be possible to avoid widespread lockdown.
The novel coronavirus pandemic has caused more than 1.1 million deaths worldwide after the WHO office in China registered the appearance of the disease in late December.
In Europe, the number of cases exceeds 8.2 million and more than 258,000 people have died from Covid-19. (With information from AFP)